Transpacific air cargo lane grows on AI chip shipments

Asia–North America was the strongest major air cargo trade lane in August, with demand up 13.2% year on year and a seventh consecutive month of growth, according to IATA. The lane accounted for 23.5% of industry traffic, while global demand rose 4.4% on essentially flat capacity. Xeneta estimates AI-related goods make up less than 10% of global air cargo volumes but are concentrated on transpacific services. WorldACD data for 21–27 September showed Asia Pacific–US tonnage up 14% year on year and average rates 38% higher; volumes from Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore rose 6–12% week on week, partly on AI-related traffic. In mid-September, year-on-year gains to the US were 26% from Singapore and 33% from Indonesia, WorldACD recorded. Dimerco’s October report describes air space from Taiwan to both US coasts as tight with rising rates, driven by AI servers, semiconductors and high-performance computing equipment; from China, US-bound capacity is recovering but still meeting demand, while South China e-commerce is softening.

Capacity has tightened. In January, Asia–North America freighter capacity was down 9% year on year while Asia–Europe was up 31%, according to Aevean. DHL reports China–Europe freighter capacity down roughly 30% since June, pushing Asia–US load factors toward 90%. Aevean calculated that daily freighter capacity from Asia Pacific and the Middle East and South Asia into Europe fell 14% in July from June, about 18 fewer widebody freighter flights a day, and WorldACD in August suggested freighters had been redeployed to the transpacific. IATA recorded global capacity down 0.1% in August, and Xeneta put September growth at 2%. Xeneta said the 28 February escalation removed an estimated 12% of global air cargo capacity, holding first-half supply growth to 1% while demand grew 4%; combined spot and contract rates rose 17% year on year in the first half. IATA reported jet fuel 79.2% more expensive in August than a year earlier, and Xeneta noted Brent crude passing $100 a barrel in early September.

Policy remains a variable. In February, the US Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs; US courts have since confirmed the president’s authority to end the de minimis exemption for low-value imports, and a congressional repeal takes effect next July. Dimerco’s October report said the US–China truce runs to 10 January 2027 and flagged USTR’s pending Section 301 overcapacity investigation covering 16 economies, including China, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, with semiconductors and electronics among named sectors. In January, Washington imposed a 25% tariff on a narrow set of advanced chips, exempting those bound for US data centres and requiring certain China-bound chips to pass through the US for third-party testing. Xeneta expects global demand growth of about 4% this year but a muted peak season.

The return leg is thinner and more mixed. WorldACD recorded September tonnage from North American origins up 10% year on year, but in mid-August North America–Asia Pacific tonnage fell 6% week on week. IATA found North American carriers posting the strongest regional demand growth in August, at 6.6%, even as they trimmed capacity by 2.5%. Dimerco forecasts tight air space and rising rates from Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York to Asia, with backlog risk in Chicago.