Air freight demand grows 6% as shippers shift to shorter contracts

According to Xeneta industry data, global air freight volumes increased 6% year on year in September, after a 5% rise in July and a 6% rise in August. Global air cargo spot rates averaged $3.10 per kg, up 27% from a year earlier and 2% from August. Capacity grew 2% year on year after flat growth in July and August, while Xeneta’s dynamic load factor rose by two percentage points to 62%. The firm linked rate support to seasonal firming in late Q3 and higher jet fuel costs amid Middle East tensions; Brent crude surpassed $100 per barrel in early September.

Xeneta also reported a shift in contracting. Of new contracts starting in Q3 2026, 60% were for three months or less, compared with 25% in the same period of 2025 and 47% in Q2 2026. Three-month contracts made up 42% of new agreements, up from 16% a year earlier. The share of 12-month contracts fell from 40% to 25%, and contracts longer than a year accounted for 3%. Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said shippers are seeking floating mechanisms that combine a base rate with adjustments reflecting market conditions; fixed-rate annual agreements are viewed as less suited to volatile conditions.

On trade flows, China’s low-value and e-commerce exports to Europe fell 40% year on year in August, steeper than the 25% decline in July, according to analysis by Xeneta and Trade and Transport Group of China Customs data. The EU’s €3 customs duty per item, introduced on July 1, continues to weigh on shipments. China’s e-commerce exports to the US rose 17% year on year in August after the removal of the US de minimis threshold in 2025, though volumes remain below their previous base. China-to-Western Europe spot rates rose 10% month on month in September to $4.26 per kg, after declines of 6% in August and 22% in July, helped by outbound demand before Golden Week.

Most major corridors recorded month-on-month rate increases in September. Northeast Asia to Europe rose 5% to $4.74 per kg, Northeast Asia to North America rose 5% to $6.03 per kg, and Southeast Asia to Europe rose 3%. Transatlantic rates increased 2% from Europe to North America and 4% in the opposite direction. Declines were limited to North America to Southeast Asia, down 1%, and Europe to Southeast Asia, down 2%. Rates into the Middle East in week 39 (September 21–27) remained above late-February levels, before the escalation of the Iran war, up 91% from South Asia and 80% from Europe. Rates from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America were 34% and 29% above late-February levels, respectively, while Europe-to-North America rates remained 20% below late-February levels, narrowing from a 25% gap in August. Van de Wouw expects global air freight demand to grow around 4% year on year in 2026, with a broadly stable market through year-end and a muted peak season; ocean disruption could shift cargo to air, but this was not yet evident in September data, and partial easing of China–US tariffs adds uncertainty.